Croatia stands before the EU chopping block

The Irish No-vote will have negative ramifications for Croatia’s EU hopes. Sarkozy has said that without agreement on the Lisbon treaty, it is inconceivable that enlargement negotiations will move forward. Merkel has thrown her support behind Sarkozy.

Bad news for Turkey? Sort of. Even before the downfall of the Lisbon Treaty, Turkey knew that membership in the EU would not occur for at least 5-10 years. That said, Turkey will have to wait in line for membership behind Croatia. The longer it takes Croatia, the longer it will take Turkey.

For more, check out this article in Zaman.

 

French Senate ends Sarkozy plan to block Turkey

Sarkozy`s plan to end Turkey`s EU bid has officially kicked the bucket. The bill would require a national referendum on each country seeking accession to the EU whose population is greater than 5% of that of France. Of course, the bill is designed to exclude Turkey and protect the accession hopes of countries such as Croatia. For a bit of background, have a look at this post.

AFP reports that the bill ded in comittee. The following reason was given: “[the bill will] likely cause grave harm to diplomatic relations between France and this country.” Isn`t that the truth. That said, it is hard to imagine how French-Turkish relations could get any frostier.

 

So where does this all leave Turkey? This week, Turkey is 2 for 1 in its EU bid progress report. The opening of two new negotiation chapters and the French vote were two pluses. Ireland`s destruction of the Lisbon Treaty is a definite negative. The no-vote may cause further inaction and indecisiveness in Brussels, which will not benefit Turkey.

However, Turks are paying much more attention to the Turkey`s stunning 3-2 come from behind win over the Czech Republic than EU politics!

 

Lisbon Treaty is dead after No-vote in Ireland

Turkish Daily News reports on the ill-effects that this news could have for Turkey s EU bid.

Diplomatic sources think the deadlock over the Lisbon Treaty may have a negative effect on Croatia, which is expected to join the EU at end of 2009. Since Turkey has not been given a date yet has a long way to go before it concludes its entry talks, a possible hold on the accession of candidate countries in the short run would not mean a lot for Ankara. Some diplomatic observers believe there is a risk that a pessimistic mood that may arise in European public opinion with the Irish no vote  about the future of the bloc, and might be used by the politicians who oppose Turkey’s membership.

 

Voting begins in Ireland on Lisbon Treaty

European Tribune reports a high turnout in Ireland. For some background on the Lisbon Treaty, take a look at this.

Here’s the breaking news from European Tribune:

I will try to post more information on voting and results here as they become available – although I will be away for a few hours this evening. Perhaps other inveterate poll watchers can pick up the slack! Vote counting is entirely manual in Ireland (following a comical attempt to introduce computerised voting) and counting will not begin until tomorrow morning. The counting usually takes all day, but trends should be apparent by mid-morning tomorrow if previous referendums are any guide.
Update [2008-6-12 17:58:38 by Colman]: Well, the reporting is pretty awful, but it looks like turnout was 40-50%, expected to be in the mid 40s. That should be positive for the Yes side, on previous experience, but previous experience doesn’t go far with referendums …

 

Lisbon treaty three countries closer to reality

Hot off the press: Greece, Estonia and Finland have just ratified the Treaty of Lisbon!

What does that mean? Why should anyone care?

It so happens that the Lisbon Treaty is the European Constitution Part II. If you will recall, the European Constitution went down in a ball of flames in 2004 when France and the Netherlands refused to ratify it. Bureaucrats in Brussels hope that by calling the Treaty a treaty, rather than a constitution, they will be able to avoid some of the nasty sentiment that bedeviled Attempt #1. So far so good.

The real test of the Treaty will be in Ireland. Ireland is the only country in Europe that mandates nationwide referendums on EU legislation such as this. Opinion polls show that the referendum is currently too close to call. France and Germany have promised a strong Franc-German response should Ireland veto the Treaty. Time may tell just what that means.

What relevance does the Treaty have for Turkey? A great deal. For one thing, the Treaty includes a clause about common defense. If Europe is able to amass a credible combined military force, Turkey will suddenly be of greater use to the EU. Turkey has a larger military — in terms of number of soldiers — than any country in Europe. If it joined the EU tomorrow, Turkey would have the fifth largest defense budget in the block.

On a more negative note, the Treaty introduces new language about accession and enlargement. The Treaty would require countries hope to accede to the EU to adhere to the block’s “values.” This could obviously bode badly for Turkey.

There are a number of other ramification of the Lisbon Treaty. Unfortunately, the Turkofile is now very sleepy and will endeavor to explore these in later posts. Iyi geceler!

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