French Senate passes referendum law

The French Senate has approved a measure that calls for a national referendum every time time a new country seeks to join the European Union. This bill is a revised version of the law that was rejected earlier in the year. The earlier draft was written so that only Turkey’s EU accession would be put to a referendum (French Senate ends Sarkozy plan to block Turkey). The bill must still be approved by the French National Assembly (lower house of parliament).

While the new law does not specifically target Turkey, it does allow the President of France to decide whether or not the “yes or no” vote will be a nationwide referendum or merely a parliamentary matter. Thus, countries such as Croatia may very well be spared the danger of a referendum, while Turkey will likely have to face one. It is inconceivable that a majority of French citizens would vote for Turkey’s accession to the EU.

Thus, Turkey’s hopes of joining the European Union just became dimmer.

 

France and Turkey: Denying Muslim women their rights since no one can remember when!

A brief glance at any Turkish newspaper printed in the last six or seven years shows that one of Turkey’s most pressing internal problems is the split between the country’s so-called “secularists” and so-called “Islamists.”

To grossly oversimplify the situation: the “secularists” dogmatically follow the ideals of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. They believe that religious symbols should be banned from the public sphere, and they believe that the AK Party of Tayyip Erdogan secretly wants to turn Turkey into an Islamic state. They think the headscarf — known in Turkey as the turban – oppresses women.

The so-called Islamists are led by the Erdogan and the AK Party. In reality, they do not advocate an Islamic state. They do believe that headscarved women should be allowed to attend public universities and enter government buildings. In short, they call for an American-style of secularism.

 

Turkey, the EU and the Armenian Genocide

There are many hurdles Turkey must overcome before it can think of joining the EU. One is the Armenian Genocide issue.

Armenians claim that over 1 million Armenians were systemically murdered by the Ottoman military in 1915. They, along with scholars from across many discipline, call these murders genocide.

Turks disagree. Some claim that “people were killed on both sides” and that what the Armenians suffered was not worse than what Turks suffered. Some claim that the Ottomans were justified in brutally ethnically cleansing Anatolia of Armenians because of the likelihood that the group would collude with advancing Russian troops. Most Turkish historians claim that not more than a few hundred thousand Armenians were actually killed in and around 1915. For a Turkish view on the subject read this article in the Turkish daily Hurriyet.

These claims are bunk.

 

Turkey agrees to attend first “Mediterranean Union” meeting

The new “Mediterranean Union” has been hyped by French President Nicholas Sarkozy since his 2007 election campaign. At the same time, the idea has been derided in Ankara and various other capitals across the EU and Muslim Mediterranean.

The impetus behind this Sarkozy project was to let Turkey think that it was actually joining Europe while denying the very large and very Muslim country membership in the European Union. Perhaps of equal importance was the chance to cast France as a “regional power.” Of course, the first meeting of the Mediterranean Union will be in Paris, with Sarkozy playing host.

Until recently Turkey steadfastly opposed the Union. It has agreed to attend the first meeting of the block in Paris, on the condition that Turkey will be recognized as a country “conducting membership negotiations with the EU.”

Why is Turkey reticent to participate in the MU?

 

Croatia stands before the EU chopping block

The Irish No-vote will have negative ramifications for Croatia’s EU hopes. Sarkozy has said that without agreement on the Lisbon treaty, it is inconceivable that enlargement negotiations will move forward. Merkel has thrown her support behind Sarkozy.

Bad news for Turkey? Sort of. Even before the downfall of the Lisbon Treaty, Turkey knew that membership in the EU would not occur for at least 5-10 years. That said, Turkey will have to wait in line for membership behind Croatia. The longer it takes Croatia, the longer it will take Turkey.

For more, check out this article in Zaman.

 

Cyprus situation getting gloomier

The positive momentum between the Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots may be coming to a screeching halt (background: click here).

The Turks are angry over a recent memorandum of understanding between the UK and the Republic of Cyprus. The memorandum purportedly supports the Greek point of view in the conflict.

Furthermore, the Greek Cypriots have decided to conduct military exercises in the Mediterranean, with — you guessed it — France. The Greeks would have been hard pressed to find a military partner more irritating to Ankara.

On the other hand, the Greeks are angry at Turkish Cypriot moves toward establishing relations with foreign countries. TRNC Foreign Minister Turgut Avci recently attended a meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in Ughanda. Greek Cypriots view Northern Cyprus as illegally occupied territory, and thus view Turkish Cypriot efforts to conduct foreign affairs as a breach of Cypriot sovereignty.

Turkey must confront a number of challenges during its path to accession. The Cyprus problem is one of the most difficult and probably the most critical of these challenges. On the one hand, Turks are extremely reluctant to cede any ground — both literally and figuratively — on the Cyprus issue. Turkish soldiers died during the Cyprus invasion. Giving up Cyprus would be seen as a betrayal of those Şehit’s (the term used to describe Turkish soldiers killed in battle. Its literal translation is “martyr”). On the other hand, it will be absolutely impossible for Turkey to join Europe if the Cyprus situation is not solved to the satisfaction of all parties.

 

French Senate ends Sarkozy plan to block Turkey

Sarkozy`s plan to end Turkey`s EU bid has officially kicked the bucket. The bill would require a national referendum on each country seeking accession to the EU whose population is greater than 5% of that of France. Of course, the bill is designed to exclude Turkey and protect the accession hopes of countries such as Croatia. For a bit of background, have a look at this post.

AFP reports that the bill ded in comittee. The following reason was given: “[the bill will] likely cause grave harm to diplomatic relations between France and this country.” Isn`t that the truth. That said, it is hard to imagine how French-Turkish relations could get any frostier.

 

So where does this all leave Turkey? This week, Turkey is 2 for 1 in its EU bid progress report. The opening of two new negotiation chapters and the French vote were two pluses. Ireland`s destruction of the Lisbon Treaty is a definite negative. The no-vote may cause further inaction and indecisiveness in Brussels, which will not benefit Turkey.

However, Turks are paying much more attention to the Turkey`s stunning 3-2 come from behind win over the Czech Republic than EU politics!

 

Lisbon treaty three countries closer to reality

Hot off the press: Greece, Estonia and Finland have just ratified the Treaty of Lisbon!

What does that mean? Why should anyone care?

It so happens that the Lisbon Treaty is the European Constitution Part II. If you will recall, the European Constitution went down in a ball of flames in 2004 when France and the Netherlands refused to ratify it. Bureaucrats in Brussels hope that by calling the Treaty a treaty, rather than a constitution, they will be able to avoid some of the nasty sentiment that bedeviled Attempt #1. So far so good.

The real test of the Treaty will be in Ireland. Ireland is the only country in Europe that mandates nationwide referendums on EU legislation such as this. Opinion polls show that the referendum is currently too close to call. France and Germany have promised a strong Franc-German response should Ireland veto the Treaty. Time may tell just what that means.

What relevance does the Treaty have for Turkey? A great deal. For one thing, the Treaty includes a clause about common defense. If Europe is able to amass a credible combined military force, Turkey will suddenly be of greater use to the EU. Turkey has a larger military — in terms of number of soldiers — than any country in Europe. If it joined the EU tomorrow, Turkey would have the fifth largest defense budget in the block.

On a more negative note, the Treaty introduces new language about accession and enlargement. The Treaty would require countries hope to accede to the EU to adhere to the block’s “values.” This could obviously bode badly for Turkey.

There are a number of other ramification of the Lisbon Treaty. Unfortunately, the Turkofile is now very sleepy and will endeavor to explore these in later posts. Iyi geceler!

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Sarkozy “irks” Ankara

“He irks us” is the understatement of the century. Ankara is furious with Paris. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has proposed an amendment to the French constitution that would require a referendum on each country seeking accession to the European Union. This would render Turkey’s bid completely pointless.

Solid majorities in Denmark, Cyprus, France, Austria and a variety of other member states oppose Turkey. What’s more, a 2006 poll found that 59% of EU citizens wanted to show Turkey the door.

Ankara can take heart in recent news coming out of Paris. Zaman reports that a large number of Senators from the ruling Union for Popular Movement (UMP) government will oppose the amendment. Will their opposition be enough? If it’s not, Turkey-EU relations will undoubtedly take a nose dive.