There are many hurdles Turkey must overcome before it can think of joining the EU. One is the Armenian Genocide issue.

Armenians claim that over 1 million Armenians were systemically murdered by the Ottoman military in 1915. They, along with scholars from across many discipline, call these murders genocide.

Turks disagree. Some claim that “people were killed on both sides” and that what the Armenians suffered was not worse than what Turks suffered. Some claim that the Ottomans were justified in brutally ethnically cleansing Anatolia of Armenians because of the likelihood that the group would collude with advancing Russian troops. Most Turkish historians claim that not more than a few hundred thousand Armenians were actually killed in and around 1915. For a Turkish view on the subject read this article in the Turkish daily Hurriyet.

These claims are bunk.

They exist for a number of reasons. First, the Turkish educational system indoctrinates every Turkish citizen with a version of Turkish history based more on nationalism than on fact. Second, those who publicly call what happened to the Armenians a “genocide” will be viewed by many within as traitors and liars. In other words, if a Turk says publicly that the Armenian genocide happened, he will lose friends and gain lots of enemies. Third, overzealous state prosecutors dissuade scholars from accurately analyzing what actually took place. Does anyone remember what happened to Orhan Pamuk?

That said, there are some who maintain that what the Ottomans did should be called ethnic cleansing rather than genocide. This last explanation is the only one that might possibly stand up to historical scrutiny. For this reason, many non-Turkish scholars refer to the massacres and deportations suffered by Ottoman Armenians as a horrific act of ethnic cleansing, but not as genocide.

So how will this debate affect Turkey’s EU bid?

  • It is against the law in Europe to condone or trivialize genocide. Turkey must pass such a law before it joins the EU.
  • France has a large Armenian population. Armenians in France constitute a powerful voting block, which can only hurt Turkey’s chances of membership — as long as there is no resolution to the Armenian Genocide issue that is satisfactory to the Armenian diaspora.
  • There is currently no Armenian Genocide recognition clause in Turkey’s accession plan. It is quite possible that one could come. Such a clause could turn public opinion in Turkey decisively against the EU.
  • The Armenian Genocide issue is a powerful weapon of the anti-EU Turks. The ultra-nationalist National Movement Party (MHP) uses the issue to support its ideology. This ideology seems to be based on conspiracy theories rather than facts. MHP supporters, along with other Turks, believe that much of the world is conspiring to divide Turkey. They see Armenian Genocide claims as a means of legitimating the claims of some Armenians on parts of Eastern Turkey.