What is the one country that most fervently desires to join Europe’s most exclusive clubs? Not Turkey. I think we have to give the prize to Georgia. The post-Soviet Caucasian republic is a sweetheart of the Bush Administration and much of Europe. It came close to acceeding to NATO at the recent NATO summit in Bucharest.
Was the rejection of Georgia a mistake?
No.
Lets examine the reasons why the Bush, the United States, the European Union, and the two American presidential candidates should not be quick to cozy up to Saakashvili and Georgia.
1. Saakashvili is not that democratic. He did, after all, rig the recent election (at least a little bit). Here’s what the OSCE said: “[there were] numerous allegations of intimidation, some of which could be verified.” OSCE, which is notoriously soft on dictators who rig elections, went on to say, “[the] distinction between state activities and the government party’s campaign was often blurred.” The opposition isn’t pulling any punches; they are claiming that the vote was rigged. Of course, it should be a surprise to no one that election fraud is occurring in Georgia. All of Georgia’s post-Soviet neighbors have huge problems with unfair elections. And Saakashvili has already shown the world his undemocratic side by brutally cracking down on anti-Saakashvili protestors. And then there’s the issue of whether Saakshvili himself is massively corrupt. Who knows? Perhaps time will tell. True, Saakashvili has done a good deal to fight bureaucratic corruption. Nixon did a good deal of great things too, but at the end of the day, he was still a crook.
2. We don’t have to worry about Georgia’s reliability as an energy partner. Georgia lies on a number of energy transit routes (BTC oil pipeline, Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, South Caucasus Natural Gas pipeline, the list goes on). What if Georgia turns to Russia and shuts of the oil and gas? Don’t worry, not going to happen. Russia occupies Georgian territory and the Georgian people have visceral hatred for Russia. Furthermore, Georgia makes too much money off the pipelines to interfere with the pipelines. Finally, Azerbaijan won’t let Georgia push it around. Lets not forget that Aliyev doubles military spending is about to hit $2 billion per year soon — that’s many, many, many times higher than Georgia’s defense budget.
3. We are not fighting Cold War II. Russia is not trying to take over the world. There is no grand ideological struggle between Good and Evil, Platitude #1 and Platitude #2, or anything else. Russia would undoubtedly like to exert some influence over the countries of the former Soviet Union. And this is at least somewhat understandable. Moscow used to control the Stans, Caucaus, Baltics, and assorted other republics. Perhaps it is nostalgic for the old days. It is also possible that Russia’s energy blackmail in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe is all about money. No one knows how rich the elite in Moscow are, so chances are they are very, very rich. The higher the price of natural gas, the more money flows into the pockets of these people. Maybe jacking up the price of gas for the Georgians the the Ukranians is just a means of enlarging the pie from which corrupt Russian officials can steal. And what’s more, there is no indication that the Russian quest for influence extends beyond its former domain. It has never used energy blackmail against the countries of Western Europe.
4. Georgia isn’t worth the risk. If we let Georgia into NATO, we will have to pledge to defend them if they are attacked. Seeing as how Georgian territory is occupied by Russia and the Georgians are itching for a fight, this attack could happen sooner rather than later. Do we really want to be drawn into a confrontation with Russia? Does anyone think it’s a good idea for the two countries with the world’s largest militaries and largest nuclear arsenals to go head to head? Of course not. Well, maybe Bush does. He seems to have reappraised Putin since he last “gazed into his soul.”
